One Nation is preparing for takeoff.
As the minor party gears up to spread its wings following a decline of major party favourability, some Australians are wondering: is One Nation ready to soar?
While she hasn’t explicitly said it, Pauline Hanson’s widely recognised populist party is taking more and more Australian voters under its wing.
Since May, five major national polling groups (RedBridge, DemosAU, YouGov, Roy Morgan and Fox & Hedgehog) have shown that One Nation has either tied or is heavily eating into Anthony Albanese’s voter preference.
In a live Q&A session with Sky News, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said that there has been an increasing blurring of lines between One Nation and the Opposition.
“I tell you, what’s not ideal: it’s to see the rise of populism, whether of the right or the left, populism and opportunism without answers,” Prime Minister Albanese said.
“I’m critical of the leaders of that political movement.”
Prime Minister Albanese hasn’t been blind to the spot fires within his own house.
One Nation’s favourability is affecting more than the public, as a slow divide threatens Parliament House.
Since the start of 2026, two Federal Ministers have jumped ship, leaving the Liberal-National Coalition to join Pauline Hanson.
Across four federal and respondent preference polls between April and June of this year, Hanson’s One Nation has shown a surge in voting preference, securing the minor parties first-ever primary vote lead.
In a steady race to the top, the Federal Budget, if anything, has only given One Nation a helping hand.
Since its delivery to the House of Representatives on May 12, Ms Hanson has risen by two percentage points in a preferred PM poll against Anthony Albanese and Angus Taylor.
In a poll of 1,005, 25 per cent of voters said they prefer Ms Hanson over Mr Albanese. Whilst it’s not the first of its kind, a three-way poll is definitely on the rarer side of Australian political history.
As Australians seemingly flock to One Nation, political experts are wondering if the two-party system really is on its last leg. That or, Australia is actively witnessing the dissolution of the Coalition.
That doesn’t seem to worry Ms Hanson though. In a live interview with Sky News’, Andrew Clennell, the One Nation leader claimed that she wouldn’t knock the job.
“I believe I have the ability to do it, I’m not going to underestimate myself,” Senator Hanson said.
UOWTV reached out to Senator Hanson’s One Nation for further comment but was unable to speak with anyone from the organisation.
Australian journalist and veteran political commentator, Paul Kelly isn’t convinced. In an interview with Chris Kenny earlier this month, Mr Kelly said that Senator Hanson isn’t fit to be the Prime Minister.
“[Pauline Hanson] would threaten every aspect of this country, from its prosperity to its cohesion, leading a party that has built nothing and shows no capacity to exercise executive power,” Mr Kelly said.
Even if she isn’t ready for the swoop, Hanson is serving the meal a lot of Australian voters are craving.
Vice President of the Australian Political Studies Association, Dr Jill Sheppard said that the rise in One Nation support comes from people who are unhappy with how the Labor political system is working for them.
“[The Labor Government] is relying on legacy, they talk about being the party of Whitlam but that’s about 30 years old,” Dr Sheppard said.
“You have a current mood in the public for turning down the temperature on social progress, and [Australia] has a dysfunctional coalition.”
Dr Sheppard doesn’t innately believe that the Liberal-National Coalition is trying to become One Nation, rather that the tactics of the Opposition are to change the parameters of the next election.
Theoretically, the function of the Australian government through a compulsory voting system should enable the alignment of Australian people with major party policies. Without a reliable Coalition however, the two-party system continues to show signs of failure.
“Increasingly, [voters] don’t feel connected to either Liberal and Labor,” Dr Sheppard said.
Australian National University political scientist, Ian McAllister said that one in three of Australian voters are casting votes for independent or minor parties in a move away from traditional preference motivations.
“The motivations people have in casting their vote has moved toward three things: Generation, gender and education,” Professor McAllister said.
“People are not voting for Pauline Hanson because of her views on immigration or border protection, they’re voting for her because they don’t like the Labor and Liberal parties.
“One Nation is a protest party.”
In a Capital Brief/DemosAU poll last month, voters were asked whether or not they’d still vote for One Nation if Hanson announced her retirement from politics. Whilst Professor McAllister wasn’t all that surprised by the findings, in the minds of voters, a difference of seven per cent might suggest that her favourability is a reflection of her ability to be honest.
According to Professor McAllister, unlike the major political contenders, the loss of seven percentage points at the removal of their leader describes One Nation as a charismatic party: led by a high profile figure, without a set of coherent policies.
“I think people make a mistake by trying to identify the reasons why people vote for One Nation or why they like Ms Hanson,” Professor McAllister said.
“The real question is not why they support One Nation, it’s why they don’t support the major parties.
“Voters are using One Nation as a vehicle to make a protest.”
Professor McAllister is not the first expert to recognise One Nation’s working strategy.
Since Mr Albanese’s scoring of the Prime Ministership last year, the Liberal-National Coalition has acted as a reactive force against Labor policies, promising to “fight and defeat [the] rotten Labor government.” Their wish? Turning the thermostat down.
“Our opinions only exist in response to the current temperature,” Dr Sheppard said.
“We can turn the thermostat up or down.”
Explaining the rise of One Nation might not be black and white but it is a matter of hot and cold. With the country already facing unprecedented territory two years ahead of the next federal election.
