The ALP’s Alison Byrnes has retained her seat in the electorate of Cunningham against challengers Amanda Ivaneza from the Liberals, and Jess Whittaker from the Greens, in the federal election held on May 3.
Labor has solidified its dominance across Wollongong’s inner suburbs, while support for the Liberal and Greens has eroded.
UOW’s Professor of International and Comparative Law, Markus Wagner said the results in Wollongong’s surrounding suburbs are consistent with national trends and grounded in the region’s socioeconomic history.
“The margins in Wollongong are pretty much the same margins we’re seeing throughout the country,” Prof Wagner said.
“The seat of Cunningham has always been a safe Labor seat. If you think about the history of the Illawarra, it’s a coal mining area, dominated also by the harbour and the steelworks.
“That all makes it much more amenable to a Labor candidate than any other candidate.”
The two-candidate preferred results has further reinforced the trend. In the 2022 election, Labor’s Alison Byrnes led the Liberal’s Marcus Uren by 29,895 votes. This year, that margin has widened to above 40,000 votes.
Compared to 2022, first-preference votes have declined for both the Liberals and Greens across these suburbs, while Labor has gained in most areas.
The Liberals has seen a decrease in all suburbs, except for Mangerton, where they experienced a modest single-digit increase.
The seat of Cunningham has been a stronghold for Labor since its creation in 1949, except for a Greens by-election win in 2002. However, they haven’t come close to winning again since.
Greens candidate Jess Whittaker said that while the party didn’t win the seat, the campaign was about more than votes.
“Cunningham has been identified by the Greens as a seat that could be winnable in the future,” Ms Whitaker said.
“But, for the Greens movement, it’s not always about winning seats. It’s about campaigning, the work we do on the streets, in the community, and pressuring the government to invest in our communities and protect the environment.
“Whether we win or lose, we’ll keep campaigning and offering a choice at the ballot box.”
The 2025 race marked the first time voting was held under new boundaries, after a redistribution brought parts of Wollondilly Shire into the Division of Cunningham.
Several smaller parties, including the Pauline Hanson’s One nation, and Animal Justice, each secured between eight and three percent of first-preference votes across the electorate.
Additional Reporting by Lucy Filetti.
