Australians could soon pay $12 for a coffee as global costs surge
A surge in global coffee prices has raised fears Australians could soon be paying up to $12 for a cup of coffee by the end of the year.
Poor weather in Brazil, Colombia and Vietnam has damaged arabica crops, driving prices higher. Rising shipping costs and a weaker Australian dollar are adding further pressure.
According to IBISWorld, more than 27,000 cafés nationwide face revenue falls of 1.1 per cent.
Industry leaders said roasters and cafés were facing challenges in keeping prices reasonable.
“Coffee is susceptible to weather and other changes, and because of that, it’s at an all-time high. That’s the catalyst, but not the only reason prices rise,” he said.
Mr Ramay said the prediction of $10–12 a cup is exaggerated, but useful for context.
“I think $10 to $12 for a normal coffee is too much of a jump. It would be quite harsh on consumers. But it’s also a way to show people what coffee costs globally, so they understand how cheap it is in Australia,” he said.
Despite rising costs, Mr Ramay said sustainability would remain a factor.
“We’re very focused on sustainability as a company. We’re a certified B Corp, carbon neutral, 1% for the planet. But for most customers, quality, convenience and price come first,” he said.
IBISWorld noted the café sector has grown by 37 per cent since the pandemic, but warned supply pressures were undermining profitability.
Some owners are trying to resist the trend of higher prices. New Woonona café owner Andrew Dimitroulis said he is determined to keep his menu accessible.
“People shouldn’t be priced out of a simple coffee, it’s part of Aussie culture,” Mr Dimitroulis said.
Agronomist Patrick Rout said Australia’s high primary production costs makes domestic coffee uncompetitive against imports.
“In terms of horticulture it’s really only viable for farmers to grow crops that have limited import competition… or can be placed in a premium category,” he said.
“There’s no way domestic coffee could compete with imported beans in terms of production costs or the volumes required.”
Café owners and customers alike are bracing for further increases, with analysts warning that double-digit coffee prices may become the new normal if global supply fails to stabilise.
